Late January is a pretty fun time of year. Spring training is on the horizon and the hot stove is winding down so most teams know what they have. And it’s also the time that Baseball Prospectus puts out their PECOTA cards, which are really fun to check out. It’s just one of the things (along with Will Carroll’s Under the Knife and Kevin Goldstein’s Future Shock) that’s worth the subscription price tag on it’s own.
When I find out they’re on the website, the first thing I check out is Jake Peavy’s card and this years’ isn’t a disappointment. Yes, I know Peavy was 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA but this is a guy who’s topped 215 strikeouts in each of the past two seasons while winning an ERA crown in 2004. Peavy is a stud, plain and simple, and if the Padres expect to compete, he’ll be one of the guys who get them to the promised land. I think the term “ace” is thrown around way too much but Peavy is a guy who definitely qualifies.
If Peavy hits his PECOTA weighted mean average, he’ll go 13-8 with 202 strikeouts, a 1.14 WHIP and a 3.27 ERA. I think he has a solid shot of hitting the 75th percentile, which puts him at 15-7, 222 strikeouts, a 1.07 WHIP and a 2.77 ERA. Those are Cy Young numbers right there, especially in the National League where you don’t have Johan Santana to contend with.
Also impressive are Peavy’s improve and breakout rates. His improve rate is 56% and his breakout rate is a very good 21%. So that kind of goes to show they think falling in at the 75th percentile will be just as likely as that weighted mean average. Of course there’s some concern because he’s shown up as an injury risk and he has an attrition rate of 14% and a collapse rate of 16%. That means Peavy could go in either direction.
Probably the coolest part of the PECOTA cards are the comparable players. Peavy is most comparable to Pedro Martinez which is impressive by itself. The rest of his top five consists of Javier Vazquez (good but flamed out), Don Sutton (Hall of Famer), Dennis Eckersley (Hall of Famer) and Tom Seaver (one of the best pitchers ever and also a Hall of Famer). That’s some pretty solid company.
So whether it’s a fans wishful thinking or relying on projections like these, I think Peavy is set to have a breakout season. I’m not quite ready to hand him the Cy Young yet, but I definitely like his chances.