The Padre Post

The Padres signed left handed starter Randy Wolf to a one year, $4 million deal.  Wolf was one of those guys with loads of potential but a ton of injuries and after a solid first half for the Dodgers in 2007, he was shut down and eventually went under the knife for shoulder surgery.  On the one hand, his breakout 2003 season is now five years away but on the other hand, the Padres are getting a guy with some potential at a rock bottom price.  I like the move.

The Padres offered arbitration to Michael Barrett and Mike Cameron so if either signs elsewhere, the Padres will get some compensation.  The players now have until Friday to decide whether they want to stick with the Padres for one more year or not.

The big news is the extension that appears close for Jake Peavy.  The best pitcher in baseball last year, Peavy could be looking at a deal that would keep in San Diego through 2012 for a price tag up of between $17 and $17.5 million.  You need pitching to win championships and there’s no better way to build a franchise then to have one of the top arms in the game in your rotation.

Everyone who’s watched Jake Peavy over the past few years expected a Cy Young at some point.  And while I wasn’t surprised that he won, I guess I’m a little surprised that he walked away with all 32 first place votes.  Brandon Webb took 31 of the 32 second place votes and Aaron Harang was the only other pitcher who had a first place vote.  This was a ballot where the writers at least all went in lockstep.

In the meantime, the Padres are trying to lock up Peavy with a  long term deal.  Letting him away would not just seriously hamper the team but it’d also cause a ton of fan resentment because Peavy has become the face of the franchise.  And I couldn’t think of a better guy to build a team around then a legimitate number one pitcher like Peavy.

Just four days ago, there was a three way tie for first place in the National League West.  Now, after a three game sweep over the Dodgers and five wins in a row overall, the Padres have broken away from the pack, at least for the time being.

Jake Peavy looked mortal yesterday.  It was the first time since opening day he was tagged for four runs in a start and his ERA almost pushed above 2.00 because of it.  Still, with 95 strikeouts and a 7-1 record (the offense bailed him out yesterday), he’s definitely on his way toward his first Cy Young.

The pitching star of the series was Chris Young.  He threw seven shutout innings in the opener on Tuesday to keep the Padres in the game.  It was eventually only a 1-0 win and Young got us there with a 117 pitch outing.  Also, congratulations to Trevor Hoffman, who had two saves in the series.  He became the first pitcher ever to save 500 games in a season.  What a season he’s having, holding the opposition to a 1.79 batting average.

Interleague play starts back up tonight and the Padres play three against the Mariners, this time at home.  The Mariners are somewhat surprising this year and the most interesting pitching match up is the finale on Sunday, when Chris Young takes on a struggling Felix Hernandez.  You have to feel for Felix because he was so good in those first two starts.  Now he’s looked rather mortal since his injury.

The last time I posted was almost three weeks ago and a big part of that was some system wide problems that I had with our network that made it extremely difficult to post.  Things have been fixed though so I’m hoping to get back into a regular schedule.

And it’s just in time because the Padres are heating up.  They’ve won three of their last four games and they head to Seattle for a three game series with interleague play starting up. 

Of course you can’t say too much about how the Padres are doing without talking about Jake Peavy.  I took some heat for taking him in the first round of my fantasy draft last year and it just looks like I was a year ahead of myself because Peavy is a Cy Young contender once again.  He leads the league in strikeouts  and ERA and he sits with a 5-1 record.  Only two times has he given up more the two runs and in six of his nine starts, he’s given up just one run or less.

On the hitting side, Adrian Gonzalez has been the star.  He already has ten homeruns and he also leads the team with 31 RBIs. 

The rest of the rotation has done a nice job as well and the Padres lead all of baseball with a 3.14 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.

So hopefully, the Padres can make up that three game deficit in a hurry.  The first order of business are the Mariners though and Chris Young gets the start in the opener.

Geoff Young from Ducksnorts takes a great look at Jake Peavy at the Hardball Times.   It’s got  comparables, stats, and what the future might hold for the Padres ace.

Late January is a pretty fun time of year.  Spring training is on the horizon and the hot stove is winding down so most teams know what they have.  And it’s also the time that Baseball Prospectus puts out their PECOTA cards, which are really fun to check out.  It’s just one of the things (along with Will Carroll’s Under the Knife and Kevin Goldstein’s Future Shock) that’s worth the subscription price tag on it’s own.

When I find out they’re on the website, the first thing I check out is Jake Peavy’s card and this years’ isn’t a disappointment.  Yes, I know Peavy was 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA but this is a guy who’s topped 215 strikeouts in each of the past two seasons while winning an ERA crown in 2004.  Peavy is a stud, plain and simple, and if the Padres expect to compete, he’ll be one of the guys who get them to the promised land.  I think the term “ace” is thrown around way too much but Peavy is a guy who definitely qualifies.

If Peavy hits his PECOTA weighted mean average, he’ll go 13-8 with 202 strikeouts, a 1.14 WHIP and a 3.27 ERA.  I think he has a solid shot of hitting the 75th percentile, which puts him at 15-7, 222 strikeouts, a 1.07 WHIP and a 2.77 ERA.  Those are Cy Young numbers right there, especially in the National League where you don’t have Johan Santana to contend with.

Also impressive are Peavy’s improve and breakout rates.  His improve rate is 56% and his breakout rate is a very good 21%.  So that kind of goes to show they think falling in at the 75th percentile will be just as likely as that weighted mean average.  Of course there’s some concern because he’s shown up as an injury risk and he has an attrition rate of 14% and a collapse rate of 16%.  That means Peavy could go in either direction.

Probably the coolest part of the PECOTA cards are the comparable players.  Peavy is most comparable to Pedro Martinez which is impressive by itself.  The rest of his top five consists of Javier Vazquez (good but flamed out), Don Sutton (Hall of Famer), Dennis Eckersley (Hall of Famer) and Tom Seaver (one of the best pitchers ever and also a Hall of Famer).  That’s some pretty solid company.

So whether it’s a fans wishful thinking or relying on projections like these, I think Peavy is set to have a breakout season.  I’m not quite ready to hand him the Cy Young yet, but I definitely like his chances.