The Padre Post

I picked this up at ESPN.com’s baseball rumor page, but it looks like a proposed deal that would have brought Aaron Rowand to Padres was put on hold.  The Padres looked like they were looking to send relief pitcher Scott Linebrick in exchange for Rowand.

Normally, I’d be all for sending a relief pitcher for a postion player but Rowand has had a rough couple of years and while he works hard in center, he also gets injured because of it.  Linebrick on the other hand has been a workhorse in the pen.  He’s thrown in exactly 73 in each of the past three seasons and while he regressed a bit in 2006, he’s been solid out of the pen.

And like Kevin Towers talks about, I’d also like to see how Terrmel Sludge pans out. 

This isn’t good to read, but it’s not a huge surprise either.  Keith Law at ESPN.com recently wrote an article about how much the Yankees farm system has improved.  In the sidebar, the mentions that the worst farm system probably goes to, gulp, the Padres.  They passed up a ton of talent in 2004 and their 2003 first round pick had shoulder problems when the Padres took him.  Even their 2006 pick isn’t projected to do much.  So unless the Padres can improve the team through free agency, you might be seeing all that the Padres really have right now.  Hopefully they’ll do better in the 2007 draft.

Late January is a pretty fun time of year.  Spring training is on the horizon and the hot stove is winding down so most teams know what they have.  And it’s also the time that Baseball Prospectus puts out their PECOTA cards, which are really fun to check out.  It’s just one of the things (along with Will Carroll’s Under the Knife and Kevin Goldstein’s Future Shock) that’s worth the subscription price tag on it’s own.

When I find out they’re on the website, the first thing I check out is Jake Peavy’s card and this years’ isn’t a disappointment.  Yes, I know Peavy was 11-14 with a 4.09 ERA but this is a guy who’s topped 215 strikeouts in each of the past two seasons while winning an ERA crown in 2004.  Peavy is a stud, plain and simple, and if the Padres expect to compete, he’ll be one of the guys who get them to the promised land.  I think the term “ace” is thrown around way too much but Peavy is a guy who definitely qualifies.

If Peavy hits his PECOTA weighted mean average, he’ll go 13-8 with 202 strikeouts, a 1.14 WHIP and a 3.27 ERA.  I think he has a solid shot of hitting the 75th percentile, which puts him at 15-7, 222 strikeouts, a 1.07 WHIP and a 2.77 ERA.  Those are Cy Young numbers right there, especially in the National League where you don’t have Johan Santana to contend with.

Also impressive are Peavy’s improve and breakout rates.  His improve rate is 56% and his breakout rate is a very good 21%.  So that kind of goes to show they think falling in at the 75th percentile will be just as likely as that weighted mean average.  Of course there’s some concern because he’s shown up as an injury risk and he has an attrition rate of 14% and a collapse rate of 16%.  That means Peavy could go in either direction.

Probably the coolest part of the PECOTA cards are the comparable players.  Peavy is most comparable to Pedro Martinez which is impressive by itself.  The rest of his top five consists of Javier Vazquez (good but flamed out), Don Sutton (Hall of Famer), Dennis Eckersley (Hall of Famer) and Tom Seaver (one of the best pitchers ever and also a Hall of Famer).  That’s some pretty solid company.

So whether it’s a fans wishful thinking or relying on projections like these, I think Peavy is set to have a breakout season.  I’m not quite ready to hand him the Cy Young yet, but I definitely like his chances.

Welcome to The Padre Post, my San Diego Padres weblog.  I’ll be covering the San Diego Padres for the Baseball Historians network of websites.  The Padres have had quite a run and while the Dodgers may have passed the Padres as far as potential goes in the NL West, the Padres should be right there with him.  In addition to covering the 2007 Padres, I’ll also be going back and taking a look at the team’s past.  My favorite player on the Padres right now is Jake Peavy so I’ll probably get a little more excited when I write about him.

The first order of business will be taking a look at the career of one the greatest Padres of all time, and that’s Tony Gwynn.  Gwynn will be entering the Hall of Fame this year and for two decades, Gwynn was one of the best hitters in all of baseball.  I couldn’t think of a more deserving first ballot Hall of Famer then Tony Gwynn.

I hope you stop by and check out the site on occassion.  I’m hoping it’ll be both fun and informational.